app\design\frontend\default\(my_skin_name)\template\checkout\onepage\shipping.phtml
Line 103, remove or comment out this line:
<php echo $this->getCountryHtmlSelect('shipping') ?>
and replace with:
<select name="shipping[country_id]" id="shipping:country_id" class="validate-select" title="Country" onchange="shipping.setSameAsBilling(false);">
<option value=""> </option>
<option value="US" selected="selected">United States</option>
</select>
<option value=""> </option>
<option value="US" selected="selected">United States</option>
</select>
Or your own set of countries you want to show. You have the valid 2 letter country abbreviation, Magento should take care of the rest on state/province selection automatically for you.